Citrini (@Citrini7) started following @Qullamaggie on Oct 9, 2024

Interesting article. https://t.co/maXSC9PwK6

What a legend

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RT @EconstratPB: Nuanced view of last wks labor mkt developments; inflation projections for CPI/PCE; Fed reaction function headed into the…

oh god it’s chinese equity groundhog day https://t.co/smGJOes0E3

tbh bloomberg guests saying a pullback is a good thing makes me think the pullback isn’t over yet.

so…youtube, right? https://t.co/2xZVlnAc90

lots of crazy theories going around so I just have to say…dont come at me with hurricane steering conspiracy theories unless you also have the tickers of the companies making the hurricane steering hardware

You can check it out here. https://t.co/Atcag7vhuN

In our piece, we detail all these baskets and more - including our Chinese AI and XJP priorities baskets. We also discuss the indicators we’re watching to gauge whether the NDRC disappointment is a setup for another leg higher or a “false dawn”.

Typically the cadence in China has been: policy impulse bottoms -> prices (assets & otherwise) bottom -> economy bottoms But it’s not unheard of for prices to bottom first. In the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis, that’s what happened. https://t.co/70X19CUeC8

Some highlights from our China chartbook published this morning… Had some fun and ran with “The Wall” concept, gotta keep it interesting! Thread… 1/🧵

RT @Citrini7: no matter how he tried he could not break free …and the worms ate into his brain https://t.co/Atcag7vhuN

no matter how he tried he could not break free …and the worms ate into his brain https://t.co/Atcag7vhuN

here’s the sheet with a brief discussion of why each name was included https://t.co/QRdzKbCHPW

Shared this basket with subscribers a week after posting this, anyone who’s interested can check it out for free now if you want: https://t.co/VgHWJUHtYp and before anyone gets pearl clutchy in the replies - of course I’m donating the pnl. match me and you can.

can someone please tell china

RT @dampedspring: @smileycapital @conksresearch @686Prism Gm fellow macroeconomists https://t.co/I0ydWy9ZUv

massive citrini L today https://t.co/9AJi6qHkTt

“the eurocane isn’t real, it can’t hurt you” the eurocane: https://t.co/TVkQ1rHpzs

me: “frame it like a question so they don’t know you don’t have a fcking clue what the answer is either”

great macro/markets exercise here: explain why the dax is at all time highs given the german economic situation

14 months ago, I predicted that in 2023 we could see the US obese population decline by as much as 6% in 2023 given some very conservative assumptions, and much more as time went on. That would represent the first time the obesity went down instead of up for more than 40 years. https://t.co/q0ovS7RP91

Lesson learned?

https://t.co/p4Xf5azcrM

Orgeron

Coach Oragon, thoughts please... @DavidHarrisAD @Greenwavefb @tulane @tulaneathletics @greenwaveman @TUuptownupdate @ipopstats @Guersmith @NickAnderson14_ @TUGreenbackers @TulaneSportsGuy @TUptownUpdate @FearTheWaveBlog @rolldamnwave @garlandgillen @CoreyGloor @AudubonAndrew

a lot of alpha to be had just by generally being prepared for stuff with a list of tickers tbh

Is Chua more of a dog name or a cat name? https://t.co/jEW9F79yxm

One of the biggest successes of the National Weather Service’s public operations was the evacuation order for Hurricane Katrina. An analysis done in the aftermath found that the explicit language, described as “perhaps the most chilling ever used” (a departure from the past https://t.co/9ZwbiZtrhM

RT @rennyzucker: Spotless small cap balance sheet w growth tailwinds and easy comps coming up for any factor enthusiasts $NTGR

china macro rock opera / chartbook

we used to be a country etc etc https://t.co/mhz29olDg8

Very solid profit outlook on $APOG https://t.co/hUDqQR7b9r

Restores my faith in humanity when I see good books get crazy expensive

https://t.co/0EEkx81xzh

I have thought of the title to the china update piece and let me just tell you guys it’s an absolute banger.

@dampedspring what’s the most asymmetric hedge I can put on rn

Been fading reacceleration in inflation for a while but between strike/china stimulus/very slight potential of middle east crisis(even though nothing ever happens)/trump presidency/jobs are gonna be fine…I am kind of thinking maybe time to hedge that view.

Overall basket up about 60% since putting it on back in mid-late October 23. Still could have just went full port NVDA instead and doubled that but c’est la vie.

Sold some china today. Not a ton. But some.

Most of the content for CitriniResearch is for paid readers, but ~1x a quarter I share trades with all subscribers. Last qtr, that trade was long our China Net-Net ADR basket. Avg return of the names on our list since = +51%. Check it out here: https://t.co/Rgum5DjhhA

Buying FXI when we posted this quick note to the CitriniResearch subscriber chat and selling this morning would have gotten you +10% in 18 hours. https://t.co/vIFSEzMxca

when will get the wave of thematic china etfs? i’d like CHIR back please.

RT @DeItaone: $CIEN - CIENA ANNOUNCES $1B SHARE BUYBACK

>thing gets incrementally better, optimism? but.. >everyone hates thing >everyone posts how thing can’t possibly keep going up >thing goes up more than you ever thought possible you’d have thought this lesson was learned on NVDA but it’s gotta be relearned with china apparently

RT @MikeFritzell: .@Citrini7 has a way with headlines https://t.co/yWzT0NCCKo

what do you mean you didn’t buy even more china on the dip after the chinese draghi moment anon

RT @Citrini7: 𝐎𝐮𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐮𝐚𝐥 "𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐅𝐫𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤𝐬" 𝐩𝐢𝐞𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐨𝐮𝐭. The leaves fall, the lattes turn pumpkin spice & CitriniResearch bor…

https://t.co/NThJHDuLgO

“so what do you think on the vice presidential debate” no. stop.

so basically banks rolled out “voice print” just in time for AI models to get good at mimicking your voice exactly?

just asking questions guys. you know, research.

is it just me or are you seeing more breadcrumbs from NVDA’s CEO that he could potentially absolve all of humanity from the sin they are born into and guarantee eternal life? https://t.co/LMFiXSp9K8

Connectivity basket been on a tear since we first published. Outperforming SPX by 11% since 8/15 when we first sent the basket to subscribers. Highlights: $COMM +68% $CIEN +13% $COHR +25% $NTGR +30% https://t.co/IBRWdukld7

𝐎𝐮𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐮𝐚𝐥 "𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐅𝐫𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤𝐬" 𝐩𝐢𝐞𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐨𝐮𝐭. The leaves fall, the lattes turn pumpkin spice & CitriniResearch bores you with financial company musings. This time with extra fintech! https://t.co/dRLi8rurSx

nice quarter guys https://t.co/IQkSiWS6Mh

I have lifted the offers that were on the china stocks and which you were probably waiting to buy cheaper Forgive me they were delicious so cheap and so easy

RT @ChrisRinvesting: Chinese brokerages are literally crashing because so many people are hitting the buy button

stocks don’t react well to news: “good news bad action, classic sell signal” stocks react very well to news: “way too far too fast, i’m selling here” when do you mfs ever buy??

what do you mean you sold the chinese draghi moment move in stocks on friday because they went up too fast anon

Interesting article.

I would make this point differently and point out the following alternative view; A large part of what allowed Japan to resist normalization of policy for so long was that China was exporting deflation and therefore allowing Japan to remain in their low rate paradigm well past