Michael Green

Post GFC thru 2024, nominal world GDP grew 3.9% a year, US mkt cap grew 14.1%/yr. Repeat over the next 15 and US market cap will be 235% of WORLD GDP. Currently 220% of US GDP.

It is not accurate. Switch from phone interview to internet survey has played havoc with UMich components. Since “portfolio value” is bounded to zero at low end, extreme responses (“I caught a fish THIS big!”) are skewing results.

How to end a week! Go Navy, beat Army (and everyone else)! LSU has a hell of a team though, so fingers crossed. https://t.co/35NRBd1A7b

Forget Xmas... give me an asset choice!

Can someone point me to this segment? I have not heard this before

By "open," he meant "closed" https://t.co/6wXPMTEwmH

Good thread that understands the mechanism is flows. Same phenomenon as US small caps.

Forget the debate about seasonal adjustment of retail sales for a moment and ponder the trend pre-Covid that has apparently reasserted itself... https://t.co/DW8YWiugdD

Amazing what an election can do... https://t.co/uqdpt1ig7B

Neutral rate estimate (white), debt/gdp (blue) Sure seems like he has it backwards… https://t.co/opbccVFqoN

A very strong labor market where you, checks notes, take a 30% base pay cut, 15.5% expected cut (if target hit), title demotion from Level 2 to Level 1, AND return to the office. This is simply a mechanism to avoid paying severance as many quit.

Historically auto loan delinquencies were a function of unemployment. Today the surging delinquencies ("But off a low base!") aren't matched by unemployment in the official stats, but DO match the sentiment charts of "Jobs Hard to Find vs Easy" which also historically tracked https://t.co/QadxqytryO

Imagine having an 8% growth rate in credit translate to zero inflation...

Fortunately it's election season. Post election season we deal with reality.

Choices… https://t.co/oonr5shI3v

Business Formations ("the economy is more entrepreneurial!") vs Business Formations for Businesses Planning to Pay Wages (real businesses). You tell ME what changed... https://t.co/Cs7vTP6dVS

Important tell in Bill’s chart… those “Defined Benefits Plans” are exploding in value… this is a story of aging, not gains. https://t.co/KsajkLBIad

"the key in the AI economy is understanding you're an idiot, a gnat, but using tools to get you on par with your betters. it's really just a bet on hubris." Bloomberg chat revealing the future. https://t.co/9rF7QAitiW

This really is excellent. I would merely offer a refinement of mechanism. https://t.co/22UqVkd4QM

From Bloomberg chat with @donnelly_brent https://t.co/WEzvyiC30z

Discuss https://t.co/szr13mwv5a

Going live... Mark already has Harley in stitches... or maybe that's his hairline

Whatever will they all do? https://t.co/DXp60TDr6S

"that's true, but mainly because China is poorer, its imbalances far greater, and government debt levels higher. Those aren't good differences." Japan also chose to roll over to US hegemony and extract a peace dividend. China has chosen a more challenging path on that front as

Good question! https://t.co/kkYHbSAITA

It's a banger of a jobs market... https://t.co/wxh72UcMzq

RT @ConvexityMaven: Newly-issued MBS train is leaving the station.... MBS with 5% to 6% coupons will significantly outperform legacy Inde…

Non-seasonally adjusted CPI tracking hyperinflationary 2019 almost perfectly... except the lagging shelter component... take that out and we're below 2019 https://t.co/t0AVN0W0UC

Angry? You're not even a Scotsman...

Hopefully someone can help here, but this is functionally identical to modern excommunication. You want to know why people are stressed? It’s the random acts of violence that increasingly intrude on our otherwise mundane existence. She should probably just build her own EBay. 🙄

RT @SimplifyAsstMgt: Don’t miss @profplum99 on @BNNBloomberg today at 4:20 PM ET. Hosted by @AndrewBellBNN. https://t.co/TtpquEGH4K https:/…

RT @VP: I will never forget the horror of October 7, 2023, when Hamas terrorists brutally attacked Israel. Read my full statement: https://…

RT @VP: The people of Lebanon are facing an increasingly dire humanitarian situation. I am concerned about the security and well-being of c…

Forget the disparate impact for a moment and read these three separate articles on Maryland/Baltimore. This is a societal failure of human capital development, not a racism (or anti-racism) issue. https://t.co/Ra4v7GaLjc https://t.co/FUX1wFW3Y5 https://t.co/uh94MgZ67K

Into the wind, baby… https://t.co/jt0xRTVMRN

Orange man bad?

Mark Blyth — comedian, Scotsman, economics professor… but I repeat myself

4th Annual Entering the Fall… streaming live now. Charity, finance and great friends! https://t.co/v7JXOtWHXu https://t.co/T7uVQqT960

RT @VladTheInflator: How much propaganda is needed to convince poor people that lower prices are bad for them

Should be illegal…