Fred Zhang

> Doubling of the human lifespan last year, I made a funny bet against a friend that, with 20% chance, >1 person of our generation will live to be >500 years old. still feeling it since then.

Glad to have played a small role in this new benchmark effort on evaluating LM for forecasting. TL;DR: it's a fully dynamic set that asks you to forecast the future and so is always contamination-free. We find frontier models still not as good as humans.