Eddy Elfenbein

"This is the most important election of our lifetime." - Influencer, age 19

"The stock market is efficient which means market prices reflect all available, relevant information. Therefore, there’s no way to "beat" the market because there are no undervalued or overvalued securities available." https://t.co/tdHS21vtxZ

My analysis was correct. The market erred.

$NFLX +10%

"The correlation between the Dow’s year-to-date return through mid-October and the incumbent party’s chances of winning are significant at the 97% confidence level." https://t.co/5HanlISgyG

The US govt had a massive top secret program called "Apollo" which had a budget in today's dollar of a quarter of a trillion dollars, and 400,000 workers to get 12 men to the moon and back safely.

Twitter is not a good place for nuanced debate. That's why it quickly falls into name-calling. But most of you morons are too dumb to understand that.

RT @davidharsanyi: 'Kamala killed it on Fox News' is the new 'Biden is sharper than ever'

RT @apparentlysteve: “Ahhh. I’m Kamala Harris! I’m going to do an interview with a real journalist” https://t.co/yxow6pgMFH

RT @jimcramer: Some hot charts tonight!!!!

I haven't seen this many dodgers score since I was at a Canadian commune back in '69.

RT @NateSilver538: In general, short the trend and long the level, people chronically underrate mean reversion.

Will Kamala Harris win the popular vote by more than 3%?

"Sometimes the best stock to buy is one you already own." Fiserv has been a member of our Buy List for 19 years, and it's putting some of its best performance ever. https://t.co/m3XLfnkv0L

At 10% per year, a portfolio will grow 38.229 fold in 38.229 years. https://t.co/1Qqx6d03hz

Cool thread:

Russell 2K vs the Nasdaq https://t.co/yfEHPtAEKB

Interesting https://t.co/fJYMJsC4f4

CVS and Walgreens are ailing. Here’s why https://t.co/dH6cxicIfq

Dear Hollywood: There are 20 Master and Commander books and one movie. Let's get to work. Chop. Chop.

Today's newsletter: https://t.co/u7gW7nieq9

I encourage all my subscribers to buy this yesterday. https://t.co/oUEPXhjwlA

Well, that's ... interesting. https://t.co/kpKiz0s9hu

American consumers are increasingly underwater on their car loans https://t.co/fILjqKyShn

Here's how the market did in the late 80s. The chart is missing some data but you get the idea. https://t.co/HEUimoMVU1

Trippy. https://t.co/9xSiZQtqDs

We're coming up on the 37th anniversary of the 1987 crash and there are several eerie similarities. The weather was about the same that time of year as it is now. The baseball playoffs were going on. There was trouble in the Middle East. Just pointing out the facts.

RT @minchoi: AI is getting out of hand😂 1. Let's fight https://t.co/oZf1z7XT19

$UNH -9% premarket

Goldman Stock Traders Head to Record, Fuel 45% Profit Jump https://t.co/9ysshjJRXX

It's been a good two years for the S&P 500 https://t.co/sznV0A5T6S

Very funny, guys. You're all real mature. https://t.co/cFO2l9XR4c

46th record close this year

Market summary https://t.co/mJavcq6WGO

RT @Sino_Market: Some Chinese monks are chanting to help investors pray for a bull market. #China #stockmarket $HSI $SHCOMP $KWEB $FXI $HXC…

New high for $FICO

New ATH for $MCD. The stock has largely been a market performer for the last 15 years. https://t.co/OQb0KMLBly

You could fuel a small city based on all the Zuck hate in my TL. Still, this is an impressive turnaround. https://t.co/y8sz9T0o9Z

Glad I didn't sell in May. Except for a three-day blip in August, this has been a good market. https://t.co/dg7Ycr8Vnf

Analysts expect S&P 500 firms to report a 4.2% increase in third-quarter earnings versus a year earlier, down from a 7% forecast in mid-July. - Bloomberg

Tyrell Corporation

The S&P 500 is +0.75%, and the Russell 2000 is -0.03%

"So far, 30 S&P 500 companies have posted results, beating the earnings consensus by about 5% on average, according to Bank of America." - WSJ

CEOs and Analysts Are at Odds About S&P 500’s Earnings Outlook https://t.co/zOYAZOn1pf

Nobel for Economics Awarded to Authors of ‘Why Nations Fail,’ Former IMF Chief Economist https://t.co/1WHBZaDUvI

Of the battleground, is this the best assumption of most conservative to most liberal? NC GA AZ MI PA WI NV

I'm no technician, but MLR closed right at its resistance level. https://t.co/550CkXxgMP

Oh behave! https://t.co/srb3qSlx9e

45 ATHs!!

Breaking: https://t.co/mJavcq7uwm

Proposed 28th Amendment: No more than 25% of the teams in any sports league may qualify for the playoffs.

"I got a case of Grade A Large. Talk to me."

If you like market stats (like I do), the best follows are: @charliebilello @KevRGordon @callieabost @RyanDetrick

The S&P 500 is looking at its fifth weekly gain in a row. https://t.co/P8DH8ETRUf

“The Dukes know something, let’s get in on it” https://t.co/g1dSEe7kye

Nice day for $XLF https://t.co/7JzxQr3TQe

I've got more bogus accounts pretending to be me. Can you please report and block? Thanks! @EddyElfeinbein @EddyElfenbeinn

Note that moderate correlation between green and blue.

Relative strength of S&P 500 Growth (red), Value (blue) and High Dividend (green). https://t.co/vULCSoOCyv

The Endless Downfall of a Crypto Power Couple https://t.co/pZWWEFLHgE

Today's newsletter: https://t.co/Ekc4MImtnr

During September, the price of butter rose by 7.8%, and eggs prices were by up 8.4%. Over the last year, egg prices are up by 39.6%.

Real Fed funds based off core inflation. Note that little dip at the end. That's what everyone's been chattering about. https://t.co/ICQGCGTuCM

Will Kamala Harris win the popular vote by more than 2%?

sorry for the confusion. Kamala does better than 2% is the over, worse is the under.

I've warned you!

RT @amacker: I have a byline in WaPo. Fed decision to go big on rate cut was not a slam dunk https://t.co/jlUDzkZoja

All-Time High https://t.co/9SmFr6BbEM

In two years, $FICO is up five-fold https://t.co/XVaTfNoAps

How a Series of Blunders Ruined a Latin American Socialist Success Story https://t.co/GfK7WC2oHa

Why Robinhood Is Seeking Merry Traders Overseas https://t.co/X8hwYcXw0l

DOJ indicates it’s considering Google breakup following monopoly ruling https://t.co/FK6hfzl7uO

US Average FICO Score Holds Steady After First-in-Decade Fall https://t.co/kQbAloR8LP

The Mets have won the World Series twice. The market crashed the following year both times.

I have some personal news. I’m not gonna share it. I said it’s personal. Duh.

Here's the thing about inflation: It sucks.

Polymarket has me taking a nap at 79%. Seems low.

So...I like wrote a newsletter and stuff https://t.co/FiNQQR912A

The S&P 500 and its dividends scaled at a ratio of 50 to 1 (ie when the lines cross, the yield is 2%). Investing is so much easier when you track dividends. https://t.co/sOU5NL0OL8

Please stop asking if I'm Satoshi. I'm not saying I'm not. I'm just asking you to quit asking me.

Treasury Rout Stalls as Traders Look to CPI to Inform Fed Bets https://t.co/iKAul6nR5y

10-year Treasury yields shifts lower after crossing 4% in previous session https://t.co/CJQ1B9GhYT

Stay safe you wonderful hot mess of a state. https://t.co/J0Bxw0Nx6O

RT @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt: all it took for Chinese stocks to go from univestable to undervalued was a 35% rally

🛎️🛎️🛎️🛎️🛎️🛎️🛎️🛎️🛎️🛎️🛎️

How Cannabis and Opium Poppies Became National Security Issues https://t.co/Tv4ATrQhA8

How to Think About the Surprising US Jobs Data https://t.co/2PgsIGJBUL

‘100%’ Yields Are Fueling a Retail Boom in New Quick-Buck ETFs https://t.co/UveNRWK763

Costco’s Gold Bars Fly Off Shelves as Bullion Prices Smash Records https://t.co/mNJk2101Ae

If you drop your crypto in water, is it no longer good?

Chicken Big Macs Invented: America 1 Roman Empire 0

Bach's Concerto No. 1 in D Minor

RT @lhamtil: One of the best indicators of an increase in wealth is the decline in consumption dedicated to food over time. Some 20% of to…

RT @cathalmalone: A NYT correction for the ages. https://t.co/HAUJgDyliJ

Lamar Jackson is quite good at this football sport.

CPL Ernie Jon Elfenbein killed in action 57 years ago today. Quảng Nam province, RVN, 2-502nd 101st ABD He was 19 years old. https://t.co/3tkoEpO53H

Me talking T-Zone with @bclund Me: "Remember that one episode with the guy and the thing?" Brian: "You of course mean season 2 episode 6 featuring..." Me: "Um...yeah, that one."

The unemployment is lower today than it was in **every single month** from Feb 1970 to Nov 1999.

When will this recession end? https://t.co/YBdgJYo9bo

People outside finance would be stunned to learn how passionately this line debated. https://t.co/s8T4PUxhxh

12-month percentage change in NFP. https://t.co/PYBgKlnEt0

From today's newsletter. The S&P 500 High Dividend ETF vs the S&P 500. https://t.co/aA7Qlqj4BU https://t.co/3anyCmAshp

The labor force participation rate for prime working age adults is near a multi-decade high. https://t.co/bIKSMfeL79

RT @EddyElfenbein: Few things get people so angry quite like good economic news.

If this tweet get 100,000 likes then I'll take an afternoon nap.

The unemployment rate was reported at 4.1% but it was actually 4.051%. It came very close to rounding down to 4.0%.

The strike has been struck

DETROIT (AP) — Source: Union for 45,000 US dockworkers agree to suspend strike until Jan. 15 to provide time to negotiate new contract.